Thursday, November 14

The MIddle East Players-Guest post by Czaorwniczy


As one who is a very dedicated reader of the The Last Refuge or The Conservative Treehouse, the site is blessed by readers who are much more astute and intelligent than I am.

Czarowniczy is one of these individuals.

This is posted here with permission from Czarowniczy and please share. I ask that you give proper credit to the author and the Treehouse. Please note that the author hopes that they are wrong but I do not think they are. My response to this is here:

"Thank you and I do not see this as being wrong. Anyone who doubts what Czarowinczy has shared here please read Tom Clancy’s Best book (IMHO) RED STORM RISING. This is by far I think, Clancy’s best work. I have read RSR at least 20 times and learn something every time. I have also read all of his books but lost interest when the books were done with another author. Just finished RSR again. RSR is about war breaking between Russia and NATO forces. The driving reason for the Russian attack was Petroleum. The pieces are falling into place and the Russians have not been sleeping and do well with this puzzle. The U.S. has been losing pieces left and right to this very same puzzle"

What is different is the span of two decades plus and the Russians setting things up with pipelines and interventions into petroleum and Natural gas producing countries. War just may not be necessary from Russia.

There is a mention Of what Israel will do and under the deteriorating circumstances that Israel finds itself in. The Sampson Option will be very much on the table and if necessary, used and used with the utmost precision and destruction of her enemies. Just the way it will have to be. Diplomacy and land for peace have been complete and total failures for Israel.

Thanks to Czarownizcy for granting me permission to steal his fine work. Here is a bit of smokey and sultry Vera Lynn to ease our pain and suffering under the first gay mulatto POTUS.  PatriotUSA






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The MIddle East Players-Guest post by Czarwinczy

By Czarowniczy  

By the time you read this Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu will be sitting down to coffee with key Egyptian political and military figures nailing down the $4-billion dollar purchase of advanced Russian weaponry. It’s a done deal. The Russians will not only receive the cash but naval basing rights (hate to say ‘I told you so’) on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast (most likely at Alexandria) but on the Red Sea also. To interested types that means they’ll have virtual control of the Suez Canal. The Russians will control the eastern Med and the Red Sea, a position they won’t have had since Mubarek threw them out.

The defensive side of the package is reported to include antiaircraft radar and AA missiles capable of reaching to the middle of the Med and covering the Suez Canal – anybody remember the Yom Kippur War? The systems are reported to protect against cruise missiles, drones and stealth aircraft. Hmmm…the latter’s interesting as Israel ordered stealth aircraft from the US in 2011 to counter an Iranian threat and, even though the types of missiles the Russians will supply is still secret, the S-400 (SA-21) was designed to counteract US stealth technology.

The offensive side of the package is said to include unspecified ground attack missiles capable of reaching Iran. The ‘Iran’ thingie was most likely put in to salve the magic thinkers into denying they meant Tel Aviv and any potential US bases in the area. We still don’t know if the offensive missiles will be site-based or mobile (most likely), the latter allowing their ranges to be extended by relocating the launch vehicles.

The Russians say that some 1500 Russian ‘support’ personnel will accompany the equipment for setup and training but I believe the number will really be many times that number. I’ve worked with the Egyptian military and while there are some good people in it there are many more whose skill sets are less than hi—tech, and even that’s giving them credit. There’s another BIG problem too – after 40+ years of US tutoring the military’s set up on a US paradigm and many of the senior staff are more Western/US oriented than they are Russian. The Russians and Egyptians will have to have a major military-wide shakeup and shakeout of the Egyptian military, especially the command staff, before the Russians are comfortable working with them – that will take time and the Russians will have their people managing and maintaining their equipment for sometime. The Russian will also not allow the Egyptians to have access to some of the mainline equipment I’m betting they’ll filter in with the Egyptian stuff, especially the intel and threat targeting stuff they’ll be aiming against the Israelis and US/NATO forces if the latter ever grow a pair. The Russians are infamous for having their specialists sit in and operate gear they’ve provided to foreign countries to make sure it’s used correctly and effectively – ala’ Korea…Vietnam…

I’m also hearing that much of the cash to buy the equipment’s coming from…wait for it…Saudi Arabia. Sounds fishy until you figure that the Iranians have been attacking the Saudis at a low level for decades now – I remember many years ago when a Saudi AF guy told me they had Iranian AF pilots flying practice nuclear-attack patterns against Saudi oil fields and we’ve seen the Iranians militarize the islands in the throat of the Gulf, setting up to attack shipping and close it off. Now we have the Russians and Iranians on the Saudi east, the Russians will be on the Saudi west in the Red Sea and as soon as Russia and Iran secure Syria and get Hezbollah to start moving on the Levant the Saudis will have the Iranians and Russians on their north. I do believe the Saudis DO NOT trust the US to come to their aid and are hedging their bets by playing nice to the Egyptians (Russians). I’m wondering if the Saudis being elected to the UN Human Rights Council (a walking, talking oxymoron) hasn’t helped in turning the Saudis? Along with the Saudis, Russia, China and Cuba were elected and will undoubtedly help the Saudis blunt the constant US criticism of the Wahabist treatment of…well…everyone?

So now we’ll have Russian and Iranians almost completing an encirclement of a large chunk US oil supplies in the Gulf (not to mention our CENTCOM’s forward headquarters in Qatar and operational theater in the Arabian peninsula) and I’ll look soon for Russia to start making moves into US sub-Saharan oil sources. Geez, POtuS, your actions in helping the US get its ass kicked out of the Mideast seems to be the long way round to force the US into a green energy mode.

There’s another thing bothering me – back in the Bush II era the Iranians were trying to establish an oil bourse that would replace the US dollar as the standard for oil prices. It didn’t really get anywhere until 2011 (Obama era) when it opened on Kish Island. They value oil there in a market basket of currencies other than the US dollar, and where it hasn’t replaced the US Mercantile Exchange hopes are that it will dent the hell out of it in the near future. Iran has also called for the creation of the Petrochemical Exporting Countries Forum, which would include Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE. Qatar, Turkey and – here it comes – Russia. The idea seems to be to replace the US as the main player in the world’s oil trade, lock up the Mideast’s oil in an Iranian led cartel and make the US dance to their song. The turning point seems to be Russia’s playing in the game – it not only has huge oil and gas reverses itself but the military power to back up Iran’s play. Perfect payback for the US’s active work in destroying the USSR. This not only gets the other Mideast oil suppliers to play ball with the Iranians, does it without a direct military threat to them and sweetens the pot by giving them a locally controlled bourse that will be able to call its own prices. In the meantime the West cannot get oil out of the Gulf without having to pass Russian checkpoints in the northern Red Sea and eastern Med or an Iranian chokepoint at the throat of the Gulf – our oil supply’s surrounded.

In the eastern Med the Russians, with the Syrian’s and Egyptian’s help, will control traffic there and neutralize Turkey by having yet more Gulf and Russian petro transfer lines going through it. Europe’s in the bag as most of the product in those lines will be going to the EU, routed through – Syria and Turkey. So here we are, possibly looking at the Forces of Darkness sitting on top of a majority of the West’s oil supply and not a lot we can do about it as our ‘friends’ now see more of a benefit in not being out friends. If I’m right the POtuS in just under five years may have undone over 60 years of US work in the Mideast, out capitalisted by an ex-communist. For those who don’t really visualize the 35-plus years of Russian natural gas intrusion into Europe I’m trying to get a map of the in-place and under-construction pipelines put up. Not long ago, while Russia was having a spat with the Ukraine, Russia cut off 60% of its NG supply to Europe during one of the coldest winters on record. It was a warning that Europe shouldn’t interfere with Russian interests in its Near Abroad and that if it did Russia had means other than military to convince Europe to lay off. The map of the gas flowing to Europe shows that Russia’s managed to put these lines through Turkey and Greece AND is planning on even bigger ones in the two countries that will bring them both into the Russian sphere and blunt their use to NATO. The Russians didn’t waste the last twenty years.

For those who don’t really visualize the 35-plus years of Russian natural gas intrusion into Europe I’m trying to get a map of the in-place and under-construction pipelines put up. Not long ago, while Russia was having a spat with the Ukraine, Russia cut off 60% of its NG supply to Europe during one of the coldest winters on record. It was a warning that Europe shouldn’t interfere with Russian interests in its Near Abroad and that if it did Russia had means other than military to convince Europe to lay off. The map of the gas flowing to Europe shows that Russia’s managed to put these lines through Turkey and Greece AND is planning on even bigger ones in the two countries that will bring them both into the Russian sphere and blunt their use to NATO. The Russians didn’t waste the last twenty years.

Wild card here will be Israel. We can see the Russian/Iranian/Hezz forces battling in the Homs area. They want to secure the Damascus salient, if you’ll excuse me calling it that, and I’m just waiting for Assad to call for Russian ‘assistance’ in securing the ‘insurgents’ once the Mede coast and areas around Damascus are secure. Look at the map – that SW portion of Syria borders Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories. Lebanon was part of Syria until the French Mandate and there are good reasons why Russia and Syria would want Lebanon back into the fold. Jordan has to be sweating buckets that the US will not interfere with Iranian and Russian resurgence into the area and with the country virtually surrounded by unfriendly and potentially unfriendly forces what do you think Jordan will do? Jordan’s been a very important intel asset for the US and its loss would be a blow to us and a coup to all in the area who hate us.

Israel, though, will find itself in a far worse position than it was in the day before the 1973 war began. This time the bad guys will be on all sides, have far better weaponry and looking at minimal (if any) help from the US or NATO/Europe. Israel will feel itself, rightfully, backed into a wall and the potential use of the Samson option will be back on the front burner.

I do hope I’m wrong.

Source is here for where commentary was pulled from.



Tags: Middle East, Oil and Natural gas in Europe, Middle East, United States,Israel Sampson Option, Russia, USSR, China, Iran, Egypt, Suez Canal, Straits of Hormuz. To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the Patriot's Corner. Thanks!

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