Trump Maintains the Support of the Black and Hispanic Vote to Take Him to the Finish Line
Trump is the only GOP candidate in the modern age to garner a big support from the Black and Hispanic communities. In fact, the GOP of the past would be satisfied getting 7-8% of the Black vote and 22% of the Hispanic vote. Trump had outpaced that number.
The percentage of Black and Hispanic votes needed for a Republican candidate to win the White House can vary significantly based on several factors, including the overall political landscape, the specific candidates running, and voter turnout. Historically, Republican candidates have received a smaller share of the Black vote (often in the single digits) and a somewhat larger share of the Hispanic vote (which can range from around 25% to 40% depending on the election).
To win the presidency, a Republican candidate would likely need to increase their share of both demographics significantly. For example, if a GOP candidate could secure around 20-30% of the Black vote and 40-50% of the Hispanic vote, combined with strong support from white voters, they could be competitive in key battleground states.
If Trump maintains that consistency with these important demographics, we should see a major landslide with the electoral college win in November.
Ultimately, the exact percentages can vary by election cycle and how much Democrats cheat, which is something Republicans and Democratic are unable to predict.
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