Occupy Wall Street has taken up residence here in New York for 24 days now, and we’ve had a chance to hear what a few of the GOP presidential candidates have to say on the matter. But is this protest going to have any effect on the 2012 elections, or how candidates will campaign going forward?
Well naturally there’s no clear-cut yes or no on this one. The answer is: it depends.
This movement, which has drawn comparisons to the Tea Party movement – as in the exact opposite, but budding in the same fashion – could definitely take root into American politics if, like the Tea Party, it organizes itself, creates a leadership structure, and defines a message.
After three weeks, it has done none of these things, and looks as though it’s shaping up to be listed on a “Most Entertaining Memes of 2011″ list. Simply a flash in the pan.
So what will be the determining factor here? Oddly enough, I think it’ll be the weather. I’m not pulling this out of thin air, here, people! I’ve heard several native New Yorkers say “wait ’til the first winter nor’easter blows through, those protesters will be outta here in a flash.” Now I’ve only lived through one New York winter so far, but let me tell ya, they ain’t pretty. We’ve had an indian summer here, an unseasonable 85 degrees in the Big Apple, even today in mid-October, so protesters are mainly out in t-shirts and sandals, but it’ll be winter coat time, soon enough.
A movement of any kind – whether it’s behind a concept, like both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street, or behind a candidate that represents a certain set of principles – requires a great deal of time, planning, coordination and most importantly, clear and decisive messaging.
It took about a couple of months for the Tea Party movement to begin the transition from a gaggle into an organization – and it takes a great deal of passion to put something together even that quickly. But as you may recall, the first ‘official’ Tea Party rally was in mid-February, headed straight into the lovely spring season. I’d be willing to put money down that it’s a lot easier to start a protest in the cold weather, when the fire in your belly will keep you warm, than to stay out in the cold when time and discomfort has worn your nerves thin. Maybe I ought to go down to Wall Street and take a few bets with those 1 percenters! Oh wait, I can’t even get there with all the protesters blocking the streets.
Another strike (besides the weather) for Occupy Wall Street growing legs is that the voters’ attention right now is on the Republican debates, and Democrats are pretty quiet on the national campaign trail. Republican candidates have no desire to bring up the Wall Street mess, because it’s still a mess. There’s no problem that’s been outlined that they can propose to solve. So unless President Obama himself chooses to make hay with some of his biggest financial backers (yes, he had a ton of campaign cash from Wall Street), the protesters will have an even harder time getting the ear of the ‘decision-makers.’
Anyway, time will tell if ‘Wall Street’ will become a campaign issue in 2012. Obviously, it could tie into the economy-talk quite nicely. A few democrats have already ‘endorsed’ it, perhaps as a play for media attention in their home districts – a tactic Idon’t recommend, by the way, because it can (sound)bite you in the ass when the wind blows the other direction.
Only time will tell on this one. In the meantime, it’s fun to watch!
***This post is re-posted with permission from www.GOPCampaigner.com***
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